網友討論：電動汽車達到了一個全球臨界點，現在超過52% 的購車者有計劃購買電動汽車
In a global tipping point, 52% of car buyers now want to purchase an EV
譯文簡介
電動汽車達到了一個全球臨界點，現在超過52% 的購車者有計劃購買電動汽車
正文翻譯
In a global tipping point, 52% of car buyers now want to purchase an EV – here’s why
Michelle Lewis
- May. 27th 2022
電動汽車達到了一個全球臨界點，現在超過52% 的購車者有計劃購買電動汽車——這是什么導致的
米歇爾·劉易斯
2022 年 5 月 27 日
The number of consumers looking to buy electric vehicles has hit 52%, according to the latest EY Mobility Consumer Index (MCI). This is the first time the number has exceeded 50%, and it represents a rise of 22 percentage points in just two years.
根據最新的安永移動消費者指數調查(MCI)，希望購買電動汽車的消費者數量已達到 52%。這是該數字首次超過50%，在短短兩年內上升了22個百分點。
根據最新的安永移動消費者指數調查(MCI)，希望購買電動汽車的消費者數量已達到 52%。這是該數字首次超過50%，在短短兩年內上升了22個百分點。
EV buyers are on the rise
電動汽車買家正在增加
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
電動汽車買家正在增加
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
The MCI survey has tracked consumer mobility patterns and buying intentions since the start of the pandemic in 2020. EY writes:
While overall levels of travel reported remain lower when compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark, the number of consumers who say constant access to a personal car is very important to them is rising, and for the first time more than half of those surveyed, 52%, who intend to buy a car say they intend to choose either a fully electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle.
自 2020 年大流行開始以來，MCI 調查一直在追蹤消費者的流動模式和購買意愿。安永寫道：
雖然與大流行前的基準相比，報告的總體（駕車）旅行水平仍然較低，但表示經常使用私家車對他們來說非常重要的消費者數量正在上升，并且首次有超過一半打算購買汽車的的受訪者，確切地說是52 %，表示他們打算選擇全電動、插電式混合動力或是混合動力的汽車。
While overall levels of travel reported remain lower when compared to the pre-pandemic benchmark, the number of consumers who say constant access to a personal car is very important to them is rising, and for the first time more than half of those surveyed, 52%, who intend to buy a car say they intend to choose either a fully electric, plug-in hybrid or hybrid vehicle.
自 2020 年大流行開始以來，MCI 調查一直在追蹤消費者的流動模式和購買意愿。安永寫道：
雖然與大流行前的基準相比，報告的總體（駕車）旅行水平仍然較低，但表示經常使用私家車對他們來說非常重要的消費者數量正在上升，并且首次有超過一半打算購買汽車的的受訪者，確切地說是52 %，表示他們打算選擇全電動、插電式混合動力或是混合動力的汽車。
001
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Environmental concerns are cited as the main reason for respondents to buy an EV (38%), and rising penalties on gas vehicles appeared for the first time as a key concern (34%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption is impacting the latter concern.
The survey also shows that 88% of consumers are willing to pay more for an EV, and 35% are willing to pay a premium of 20% or more, in keeping with the MCI 2021 survey’s findings.
在對 18 個國家的 13,000 人進行的一項調查中，意大利 (73%)、中國 (69%) 和韓國 (63%) 的購車者最愿意購買電動汽車。澳大利亞 (38%) 和美國 (29%) 的消費者比例最低。
環境問題被認為是受訪者購買電動汽車的主要原因（38%），而對燃油車來說懲罰性的油價上漲首次成為主要問題（34%）。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和供應鏈中斷正在成為影響后者的擔憂。
調查還顯示，與 MCI 2021 調查的結果一致，88% 的消費者愿意為電動汽車支付更多費用，其中35% 的消費者愿意支付 20% 或更高的溢價。
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Environmental concerns are cited as the main reason for respondents to buy an EV (38%), and rising penalties on gas vehicles appeared for the first time as a key concern (34%). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruption is impacting the latter concern.
The survey also shows that 88% of consumers are willing to pay more for an EV, and 35% are willing to pay a premium of 20% or more, in keeping with the MCI 2021 survey’s findings.
在對 18 個國家的 13,000 人進行的一項調查中，意大利 (73%)、中國 (69%) 和韓國 (63%) 的購車者最愿意購買電動汽車。澳大利亞 (38%) 和美國 (29%) 的消費者比例最低。
環境問題被認為是受訪者購買電動汽車的主要原因（38%），而對燃油車來說懲罰性的油價上漲首次成為主要問題（34%）。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和供應鏈中斷正在成為影響后者的擔憂。
調查還顯示，與 MCI 2021 調查的結果一致，88% 的消費者愿意為電動汽車支付更多費用，其中35% 的消費者愿意支付 20% 或更高的溢價。
Range anxiety is dropping
里程焦慮正在下降
里程焦慮正在下降
The MCI survey also shows that EV owners are less worried about range anxiety or EV chargers. The top motivator for second-time EV buyers is that “EVs now have longer ranges,” and just 27% of EV owners were concerned about charging infrastructure, compared to 36% of those currently without an EV.
Randy Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader says:The old issues of worrying about charging infrastructure and the range of EVs will soon come to an end. We know that the vast majority of journeys are relatively short, and as charging infrastructure continues to grow and battery quality continues to increase, we will start to see these concerns fade. It is also clear that those who own EVs know this already.
MCI 調查還顯示，電動汽車車主現在不太擔心里程或電動汽車充電裝置了。第二次購買電動汽車的最大動力是“電動汽車現在有更長的續航里程”，只有 27% 的電動汽車車主擔心充電基礎設施，而目前還沒有電動汽車的車主中這一比例為 36%。
安永全球先進制造和移動業務負責人蘭迪·米勒說：擔心充電基礎設施和電動汽車行駛里程的老問題很快就會結束。我們知道，絕大多數（電動汽車）行程都相對較短，隨著充電基礎設施的不斷發展和電池質量的不斷提高，我們將開始看到這些擔憂消退。同樣清楚的是，擁有電動汽車的人已經知道這一點。
Randy Miller, EY Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility Leader says:The old issues of worrying about charging infrastructure and the range of EVs will soon come to an end. We know that the vast majority of journeys are relatively short, and as charging infrastructure continues to grow and battery quality continues to increase, we will start to see these concerns fade. It is also clear that those who own EVs know this already.
MCI 調查還顯示，電動汽車車主現在不太擔心里程或電動汽車充電裝置了。第二次購買電動汽車的最大動力是“電動汽車現在有更長的續航里程”，只有 27% 的電動汽車車主擔心充電基礎設施，而目前還沒有電動汽車的車主中這一比例為 36%。
安永全球先進制造和移動業務負責人蘭迪·米勒說：擔心充電基礎設施和電動汽車行駛里程的老問題很快就會結束。我們知道，絕大多數（電動汽車）行程都相對較短，隨著充電基礎設施的不斷發展和電池質量的不斷提高，我們將開始看到這些擔憂消退。同樣清楚的是，擁有電動汽車的人已經知道這一點。
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Where I live the car tax is proportional do CO2 level emissions and the cc size of the motor. This results that combustion cars pay between 30% tax (when purchasing new) and >90% (for very pollution cars). BEVs do not pay this tax as it does not produce CO2 and has not a combustion motor. All cars pay VAT of 23%. For new BEV cars until 50k€ VAT can be deductible for companies and self employed professionals. Cars also pay a yearly tax based on a similar formula (about 80€ for a Smart ICE to more than 1000€ for a large polluting car). Here again it pay to have a BEV. Besides this, petrol and Diesel is at about 2€/litter.
And we have an very good EV charger network (unfortunately not as good as in Norway or Nederland). It just makes economical sense to buy BEV. There is a small subsidies for BEVs on top of this but it does not make a significant economic difference and it will finish at the end of 2022. The difference is a tax system based on pollution levels (as in some other European countries).
在我住的地方，汽車稅與二氧化碳排放量和發動機容積的大小成正比。這導致燃燒汽車支付 30% 的稅（購買新車時）和 >90%（非常污染的汽車）。電動汽車不需繳納此項稅，因為它不產生二氧化碳，也沒有內燃機。所有汽車均需繳納 23% 的增值稅。對于新購買的電動汽車，公司和自雇人士的增值稅可抵扣 50,000 歐元。汽車還根據類似的公式每年繳納稅款（Smart 小電動車約為 80 歐元，大型高排放汽車則超過 1000 歐元）。再次，擁有一輛電動汽車是值得的。除此之外，汽油和柴油的價格約為2 歐元/升。
而且我們有一個非常好的電動汽車充電器網絡（不幸的是還是不如挪威或是荷蘭）。購買電動汽車具有經濟意義。除此之外，還有少量對電動車的補貼，但不會產生重大的經濟差異，并將在 2022 年底結束。不同之處在于基于污染水平的稅收制度（如在其他一些歐洲國家）。
Until subsidies are removed.
直到補貼取消。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
Norway is already starting to reduce subsidies:
https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/norway-rolls-back-ev-incentives-while-boosting-walking-and-cycling/ ... since the car market is almost completely electric. Their expectations on the result are somewhat different from yours. This will be the way for all of Europe at least.
挪威已經開始減少補貼 ......因為它的汽車市場正在幾乎完全轉向了電動汽車。他們對結果的期望與你的有所不同。至少這將是整個歐洲的道路。
One reason for a carbon tax to keep gas prices high.
征收碳稅是油價得以保持高位的原因之一。
The problem with a carbon tax is that it's regressive and hurts the lower income folks the most who can't afford to live in the city where they work, so they buy cheaper housing in the outskirts/countryside and commute dozens of miles each day to make a living. Those are the same folks who can't afford the higher cost of an EV.
碳稅的問題在于它是遞減的，對負擔不起在他們工作所在城市生活的低收入人群的傷害最大，因為他們在郊區或是鄉村購買更便宜的住房，每天需要長距離通勤謀生。而這些人負擔不起更高成本的電動汽車。
In Canada, some portion of the carbon tax revenue is distributed to people who file their taxes on time.
在加拿大，部分碳稅收入會返還給按時報稅的人。
It still amazes me how few people understand that they get a portion of the carbon tax returned to them. (Canada)
令我驚訝的是，很少有人知道他們可以得到一部分碳稅返還。（加拿大）
This is why there needs to be small cheap 100 mile EVs in the USA. If you absolutely need a commuter vehicle then you should be able to get a 100 mile EV for ~ $20K. If you put 20% down ($4000) and finance it for 7 years, it is just over $225 per month which should be relatively affordable.
這就是為什么美國需要小型和便宜的 100 英里（約合160公里）里程的電動汽車。如果你絕對需要一輛通勤汽車，那么你應該能以 2 萬美元左右的價格獲得一輛 100 英里的電動汽車。如果你首付 20%（4000 美元）并為其做7年的融資分期計劃，則每月只需支付225美元多一點，這應該是相對負擔得起的。
Those city EVs are even cheaper when bought used. I bought my used Fiat 500e for under $8k many years ago. Much of the problem is that people looking for a cheap car don't even know there are cheap used EVs. People still think EVs are expensive partly because all the ones they here about are new cutting edge EVs. Also right now most EVs are too expensive because of all the problems caused by the pandemic.
這些城市型電動汽車在購買時甚至更便宜。多年前，我以不到 8000 美元的價格購買了一輛二手的菲亞特500e電動汽車。大部分問題在于尋找便宜汽車的人甚至不知道有便宜的二手電動汽車。人們仍然認為電動汽車很貴，部分原因是他們在這里談論的都是新的高端電動汽車。同樣，由于大流行引起的所有問題，現在大多數這類電動汽車都太貴了。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
Anyway it will become a moot point over the next 2 and a half years. Price parity is coming.
無論如何，這將在未來兩年半內成為一個有爭議的問題。廉價（電動汽車）將到來。
As noted above the carbon tax in Canada is returned to taxpayers. I just looked it up and in Ontario "The carbon tax rebates in Ontario are $718 for a family of four. That works out to $360 for a single adult or first adult in a couple, with the second adult getting $180. For each child, you are entitled to $89." We own an EV and almost never use our ICE van...so we definitely come out ahead under this tax.
如上所述，加拿大的碳稅退還給納稅人。我剛查了一下，在安大略?。骸鞍泊舐允〉奶级愅硕悶樗目谥?718 元。單身成人或夫妻中的第一個成人退稅額為 360 元，第二個成年人的退稅額為 180 元。對于每個孩子，你有權獲得89元的退稅?！蔽覀儞碛幸惠v電動汽車，幾乎從不使用我們的燃油貨車......所以我們在這項稅收制度下肯定會更劃算。
True, but ... it is more than just the carbon tax. Today every thing is more expensive, much more expensive. In so many (most) cases it takes two incomes to afford living in our modern world.
I believe gasoline/diesel fuel will only go up in price, especially when demand begins to wane with more EVs.
Perhaps EVs will encourage more efficient and better mass transit. No offense the Big Three have shaped the market for vehicles in the US for decades and have guided us away from smaller, more efficient vehicles to larger, more powerful trucks and SUVs. Often time the lower income families are forced to buy the least efficient, older vehicles and that adds to their problem. Remember the Soccer Mom? Once upon a time, her dream was to drive a mini van with a 4 cylinder engine, seating for 5. Now these Moms wouldn't be caught dead in a mini van and prefer those sexy, powerful, heavy SUV/CUVs. Sadly today, our BEVs are echoing the wasteful ways of the ICE(V) Age, by promoting speed and power instead of range and efficiency. Our wonderful Earth has a limited amount of minerals, clean water, and clean air. We have no Plan B.
沒錯，但是... 它不僅僅是碳稅。今天一切都更貴，更貴。在許多（大多數）情況下，我們需要打兩份工才能負擔得起我們現代世界的生活。
我相信汽油/柴油燃料的價格只會上漲，尤其是當（對化石燃料的）需求隨著更多電動汽車而開始減弱時。
也許電動汽車會鼓勵更高效、更好的公共交通。幾十年來，三巨頭塑造了美國的汽車市場，并引誘著我們從更小、更高效的汽車轉向更大、更龐大的皮卡和 SUV。低收入家庭經常被迫購買效率最低的舊車，這增加了他們的問題。還記得足球媽媽嗎？曾幾何時，她的夢想是開一輛可乘坐5人的配備4缸發動機的小車?，F在這些媽媽不會被困在一輛小型車上，而是更喜歡那些性感、龐大、重型的SUV或者CUV?？杀氖?，今天，我們的電動汽車正在呼應燃油汽車時代的浪費方式，通過提高速度和動力而不是里程和效率（來吸引消費者）。我們美妙的地球擁有有限的礦物質、清潔的水和清潔的空氣。我們沒有 B 計劃。
（譯注：文中說的足球媽媽，指美國社會中會花許多時間帶孩子參加體育活動、音樂課等的母親,尤指典型的中產階級母親。）
Yeah, I can't figure out if the terrible sales of economy cars is that people would rather buy big used cars, or if they just would rather not be seen driving economy cars.
是的，我不知道經濟型汽車糟糕的銷售情況是因為人們寧愿購買二手的大型車，還是只是不想被人看到駕駛經濟型汽車。
In the United States, most things related to elected officials tend to favor the rich, not the common man.
And there are large transition cost to be weighed, mostly a burden to those with less wealth as we make the transition away from fossil fuels to clean sustainable energy. Perhaps a tax credit of $1,000 per year to those households earning less than 80k per year is the best option to offset the cost of the transition we are going through. In a decade or so, rich and poor alike will see the benefits of low cost clean energy and EV's and there will be plenty of used EV's on the market, along with used batteries and used solar panels on the cheap.
在美國，與民選官員有關的大多數事情都傾向于有利于富人，而不是普通人。
在我們從化石燃料向清潔可持續能源轉型的過程中，需要權衡巨大的轉型成本，這主要是那些低收入人群的負擔。對于那些年收入低于 8 萬的家庭，每年 1,000 美元的稅收抵免或許是抵消我們正在經歷的轉型成本的最佳選擇。大約十年后，無論貧富階層都將看到低成本清潔能源和電動汽車的好處，市場上將出現大量二手電動汽車，以及廉價的舊電池和太陽能電池板。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
We saw this in the past where large pickups and SUVs fell out of favor when gas prices spiked. It will be interesting to see if this current boost in interest for EVs fades when/if gas prices fall again. One can hope that this current interest increases and doesn’t drop when the current market forces change.
我們過去看到過這種情況，當汽油價格飆升時，大型皮卡和 SUV 就失寵了。有趣的是，如果汽油價格再次下跌時，目前對電動汽車的興趣是否會消退。人們可以希望，即使當前市場情況發生變化時，目前這種（對新能源汽車）的興趣仍會增加而不是下降。
Asking that question sort of assumes you are still comparing large gasoline vehicles vs small gasoline vehicles, as if nothing has changed and as if there are no inherent advantages to electric. That is the scenario where drivers seesaw between large and small/efficient vehicles with gas price swings.
But something has changed. You are now comparing large gasoline vehicles vs large electric vehicles, and there are actual inherent advantages to electric here. The reason for so much interest in the F-150 Lightning, Rivian, and Tesla Cybertruck, before gas prices spiked, is that realization that they are massive batteries on wheels, with numerous practical advantages over gasoline. The torque, the ability to power a worksite with numerous AC outlets, the ability to power a home during an outage, the additional space…
This is part of the tipping point we are seeing, where regardless of gas prices, working people who need torque and mobile onsite electricity are not asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy an electric vehicle” but instead, after looking at the practical advantages, asking themselves “why would I ever want to buy a gas vehicle.”
問這個問題是假設你仍在比較大型汽油車和小型汽油車，好像什么都沒有改變，好像電動汽車沒有固有的優勢。這就是駕駛員在汽油價格波動的大型和小型或者更高效車輛之間搖擺不定的情況。
但是有些事情發生了變化。你現在正在比較大型的燃油車和大型的電動汽車，電動車目前具有固有的優勢。在汽油價格飆升之前，人們對 福特F-150閃電、Rivian電動皮卡和 特斯拉皮卡就已經如此感興趣的原因是他們意識到它們是裝在車輪上的大型電池，與汽油車相比具有許多實際優勢。高扭矩、為具有眾多交流電源插座的工地供電的能力、在停電期間為家庭供電的能力、額外的空間等等……
這是我們所看到的轉折點的一部分，無論汽油價格如何，需要大扭矩和移動現場電源的工作者不會問自己“我為什么要購買電動汽車”，而是在看到了電動車的實用優勢后，問自己“我為什么要買汽油車”。
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EVs are superior tech and are cheaper over their lifetime. ICE cars on the other hand shake, smell, are dirty, they kill us with toxic gas, are expensive to maintain, expensive to fuel, plus they are slow and unresponsive to drive. ICE is obsolete tech .. good luck selling one by 2026 even .. let alone 2030. It is very clear why interest in BEV is accelerating while people drop ICE.
為什么（對電動車的興趣）會消退？電動汽車是卓越的技術，并且在其全生命周期內更便宜。另一方面，燃油車會抖動、有異味、很臟，它們會用有毒氣體殺死我們，維護成本高，燃料成本高，而且它們行駛緩慢且反應遲鈍。燃油車是過時的技術 ...... 祝你在 2026 年之前能把它們賣掉...... 更不用說 2030 年了。很清楚為什么人們對電動汽車的興趣在加速而放棄 燃油車。
I agree that EVs are superior as I’ve driven 125,000 electric miles over the last 9 years and hope to never buy a new gasoline vehicle. I’m just saying that most consumers aren’t as discerning as you and IF THE GAS PRICES eventually drop, they will forget the recent pain at the pump and possibly buy a gas vehicle when the time comes for a new vehicle.
This isn’t the first time we’ve had gas for over $4 per gallon, but everyone is sure talking like it is.
我同意電動汽車的優越性，因為我在過去 9 年中已經駕駛了 125,000 英里的電動汽車里程，并希望永遠不會購買新的燃油車。我只是說大多數消費者不像你那樣挑剔，如果汽油價格最終下降，他們會忘記最近加油的痛苦，并可能在需要新車時還是購買汽油車。
這不是我們第一次以每加侖 4 美元以上的價格購買汽油，但每個人都肯定會這樣說。
Could be. Luddites abound.
有這可能。 盧德分子比比皆是。（譯注：盧德運動，工業革命初期由于擔心機器對人工的代替對機器設備進行攻擊和破壞的運動，當代主要表現為對工業化、自動化、數字化、人工智能等新科技的反對。）
It probably won't fade, but they'll easily be selling ICE until 2030 and probably beyond. People can't buy what's not made. I don't know what country you're in, but in the US where I'm from the big makers are saying they'll be selling only 40-60% of their fleet as EV in 2030. Also, the US tends to buy 14M-17M new cars a year and last year there were only about 1M sold. They won't ramp up an extra 13M cars per year very quickly (because they can't get enough batteries), and not even in 3.5 years (your 2026).
We will transition, but it won't go as fast as many hope -- at least in the US. Other countries will make it faster.
興趣可能不會消退，但他們很容易在 2030 年甚至更久之后繼續銷售燃油汽車。因為人們買不到制造不出的東西。我不知道你在哪個國家，但在我來自擁有大型（電動汽車）制造商的美國，他們說到 2030 年他們在銷售的汽車總量中仍只能有 40-60% 的電動汽車。此外，美國每年售出 1400 萬至 1700 萬輛新車，而去年僅售出約 100 萬輛（電動汽車）。他們不會很快每年增加到 1300 萬輛（電動）汽車的（因為他們無法獲得足夠的電池），甚至在 3.5 年內（也就是你說的 2026 年）也不會。
我們將過渡到電動汽車，但不會像許多人希望的那樣快——至少在美國是這樣。其他國家會更快。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
In a survey of 13,000 people in 18 countries, car buyers in Italy (73%), China (69%), and South Korea (63%) are the most committed to buying an EV. Consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed.
Until a few days ago, Australia had a Government that was almost comically committed to trying to sabotage the EV transition.
They were actively campaigning against EVs saying that they were a plan to “kill the weekend” (because it’s not a real weekend unless you drive an ICE car a bit further than an imaginary hypothetical EV’s range) and their policies reflected that.
It’ll be interesting to see how that figure changes now that they’ve got a slightly more sane Government running the country!
“在對 18 個國家的 13,000 人進行的一項調查中，意大利 (73%)、中國 (69%) 和韓國 (63%) 的購車者最愿意購買電動汽車。澳大利亞 (38%)和美國 (29%) 的消費者承諾最少?！?br /> 直到幾天前，澳大利亞的政府還在幾乎可笑地致力于破壞過渡到電動汽車的進程。
他們積極反對電動汽車，稱他們是“扼殺周末”的計劃（因為這不是一個真正的周末，除非你駕駛一輛燃油車，它比想象中的電動汽車的續航里程更遠一點），他們的政策反映了這一點。
現在既然他們有一個稍微理智一點的政府來管理這個國家，那么看看這個數字會如何變化會很有趣！
And the EVs can't be made until the battery factories are ramped up and the chip shortage is solved and in general the broken supply chains are fixed.
在電池工廠擴大規模、芯片短缺問題得到解決、供應鏈中斷的情況總體上得到修復之前，電動汽車是無法擴大制造規模的。
What I’m learning is the flip to BEV is panning out faster than predicted .. so 40's will be largely 100% BEV based on how things are going today. All segments will be addressed by BEV and the industry / supporting infrastructure will mature by then. Automakers plans will have to accelerate because the competition will take market share if they don’t.
我所了解到的是，電動汽車的轉變速度比預期的要快......所以根據今天的情況，40年代將很可能在很大程度上實現100% 的電動汽車銷售。電動汽車將解決所有細分市場，屆時行業/配套基礎設施將成熟。汽車制造商的計劃將不得不加速，因為如果他們不這樣做，競爭者就會占據市場份額。
Transit is changing to electric buses faster than people are to electric cars. What I have seen in Texas all the major cities are buying electric buses.
公交車改用電動巴士的速度比人們改用電動汽車的速度要快。 我在德克薩斯州看到的所有主要城市都在采購電動巴士。
From now on the rate of BEV adoption is about how quickly the industry can build its supplylines.
I do agree with that. However, that's another thing that will prevent EV from being a majority by 2026 and 100% by 2030. Perhaps I'm overly pessimistic, but I don't think the supply lines can be built fast and well enough. Having enough batteries will be the biggest problem.Transitions are hard (although we will get there eventually).
“從現在開始，電動汽車的采用率取決于該行業能夠以多快的速度建立供應鏈?！?br /> 我同意這一點。然而，這是另一件事，它將阻止電動汽車在 2026 年和 2030 年成為多數。也許我過于悲觀，但我認為供應鏈無法快速和良好地建立起來。供應足夠的電池將是最大的問題。過渡不會很容易（盡管我們最終會到達那里）。
The survey seems to be among non-EV owners, asking them about whether they would buy an EV, but it's not entirely clear. If you ask Tesla owners why they bought a Tesla, the environmental part might show up as a consideration. But it's far from the main reason why people buy EVs. But it's the number one attacking point by haters.
該調查似乎是在非電動車車主中進行的，詢問他們是否會購買電動車，但并不完全清楚。如果你問特斯拉車主為什么買特斯拉，環境部分可能會作為考慮因素出現。但這遠不是人們購買電動汽車的主要原因。但它是仇恨者們的攻擊焦點。
Like most politics since about 1968, the point of attacking environmentalism is not purchasing decisions, but creating a sense of threat that can only be dealt with by "action", which is navigated into huddling together with like-minded people to try to save their notion of America. Note that there's a lot less of this overseas.
就像 1968 年以來的大多數政治一樣，攻擊環保主義的重點不是購買決策，而是制造一種只能通過“行動”來應對的威脅感，這種威脅感被引導成與志同道合的人糅合在一起，成為他們試圖拯救美國的所謂理念。
請注意，這種情況在其他國家要少得多。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
Now only if there were sufficient numbers of EVs available to buy... (or even any available at all)
現在只有當有足夠數量的電動汽車可供購買時……（甚至任何可用的）
Will Meek EVtruckin
Supply is ramping quickly.
供應正在迅速增加。
Much slower than the increase in demand. Even Tesla stopped taking orders.
遠遠低于需求的增長。甚至特斯拉也停止接受新訂單了。
When demand outstrips production despite doubling every year, that tells u more about the future of the market than anything else.
盡管每年翻一番，但當需求超過產量時，這比其他任何事情都更能告訴你市場的未來是什么。
Keep in mind that Tesla increases their production by roughly 50% every year (insane!) and they finally scared the legacy automakers enough to get them SERIOULSY building EVs. Mustang Mach E, F150 Lightning, Hummer EV all hit the market and rapidly sold out THIS YEAR. Those big automakers WILL ramp production in response. Add to that any automaker that doesnt have an EV on the market yet, is getting one to market ASAP because the writing is on the wall. In the next year or two there will be so many more choices and so many more total EVs for sale.
請記住，特斯拉每年將產量增加大約 50%（瘋了?。?，他們最終嚇壞了傳統汽車制造商，讓他們認真地制造電動汽車。 野馬 E、F150 閃電、悍馬EV 均在今年上市并迅速售罄。那些大型汽車制造商將增加產量作為回應。除此之外，任何尚未在市場上推出電動汽車的汽車制造商都將盡快將其推向市場，因為這一切都已成定局。在接下來的一兩年內，將會有更多的選擇和更多的電動汽車總銷量。
I drove past the new Texas Giga Factory....that place is huge and will likely scale to 2M cars/year at that plant alone.
我開車經過新的德克薩斯州特斯拉的 Giga 工廠……那個地方很大，僅在那個工廠就有可能擴大到 200 萬輛汽車/年。
When gas prices spike consumers turn to smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. Once gas prices drop fuel thirsty SUV sales pick up almost instantly
This tells us that consumers are price sensitive yet very short sighted.
This EV interest is also likely the same, once gas prices drop EV interest will fall.
That said there are some differences this time, this massive spike is due to the war in Ukraine, so the drop will take longer and we may even experience more spikes in the interim. Also Europe is now committed to getting off Russian oil for geopolitical reasons which should help EVs. Finally EV availability is at all time highs, an easy answer to high gas prices.
Price parity for EVs will come but its a fair ways off, but if demand does drop with low oil prices EV prices will also drop after the current scaling of production is complete becasue supply exceeding demand lowers prices, econ 101.
當汽油價格飆升時，消費者會轉向更小、更省油的汽車。一旦汽油價格下降，SUV的銷量就會立即回升
這告訴我們，消費者對價格敏感但目光短淺。
這種電動汽車的興趣也很可能是一樣的，一旦汽油價格下降，電動汽車的興趣就會下降。
話雖如此，這次還是有一些不同，這個巨大的峰值是由于烏克蘭的戰爭，所以下降需要更長的時間，我們甚至可能在此期間經歷更多的峰值。此外，出于地緣政治原因，歐洲現在致力于擺脫俄羅斯石油，這應該有助于電動汽車。最后，電動汽車的可用性一直處于歷史最高水平，這是對高油價的一個簡單回應。
電動汽車的價格平價將會到來，但還有一段距離，但如果需求確實因低油價而下降，則在當前的生產規模完成后，電動汽車價格也會下降，因為供大于求會降低價格，經濟學的入門級課程。
Yeah... its almost like gas prices went up and reality hit them in the mouth.
They're forecasting $6 a gallon US average by End of August. If that actually happens the value of existing EV's will exploding like we've never seen before as desperate people flock to try and get out of the 16 MPG V8's they all bought during the pandemic at fire sale prices. I know a huge number of people in the South East that think its normal to daily drive a 10 year old V8 truck getting 15-16 MPG on average.
是的......幾乎就像汽油價格上漲的現實打擊了他們。
他們預計到 8 月底美國平均每加侖汽油價格將達到6 美元。如果這種情況真的發生，那么現有電動汽車的價值將像我們以前從未見過的那樣爆炸，因為絕望的人們蜂擁而至，試圖擺脫他們在大流行期間以低價購買的每加侖跑16英里的V8發動機的大型車。我知道東南部有很多人認為每天駕駛一輛10年車齡的 V8皮卡平均每加侖油跑15-16 英里是正常的。
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity. I think ICEVs will die before that happens as demand for EVs will remain high even as parity in cost to manufacture is achieved next year or the year after.
IE, manufacturers will stop making ICEVs before they fall below BEVs in sales price because ICEVs will be less profitable.
我現在認為電動汽車可能永遠不會達到價格平價。我認為 ICEV 將在此之前消亡，因為即使明年或后年實現制造成本平價，對 EV 的需求仍將保持高位。
即，制造商將在銷售價格低于 BEV 之前停止生產 ICEV，因為 ICEV 的利潤將降低。
I am now of the opinion that EVs may never reach price parity.
Many used to say the same about Solar.
Last year Tesla's battery price was estimated at $137/kWh, at $100 kWh its close to price parity.
But demand far outstrips supply so price is not coming down at the consumer level even if it is at the wholesale level.
我現在認為電動汽車可能永遠不會達到廉價。
許多人過去常常對太陽能說同樣的話。
去年特斯拉的電池價格估計為 137 美元/千瓦時，接近100 美元平均價格。
但需求仍遠遠超過供應，因此即使在批發層面，消費者層面的價格也不會下降。
That is basically what I am talking about.
這基本上就是我所說的。
EVs are expensive solely because of the price of batteries. Everything else is lower cost in comparison--no engine, oil, oil pumps, transmission, radiator, etc etc.
Many many billions of dollars are now being spent on battery research. A lot of this research looks very promising. We might get twice the power density or more, which means the majority of the cost of EVs could end up at one half the cost.
I think it is inevitable that EVs will not just reach price parity, but will be much cheaper than the equivalent ICE cars.
Wouldn't you choose a car that costs less, is cheaper to run, and has better specs?
電動汽車之所以昂貴，僅僅是因為電池的價格。相比之下，其他所有東西的成本都更低——沒有發動機、機油、油泵、變速箱、散熱器等。
現在有幾十億美元被投入用于電池研究。許多這樣的研究看起來很有希望。我們可能會獲得兩倍或更多的功率密度，這意味著電動汽車的大部分成本最終可能是現有成本的一半。
我認為電動汽車不可避免地不僅會達到價格，而且會比同等的內燃機汽車便宜得多。
你不會選擇成本更低、運行更便宜、規格更好的汽車嗎？
Don’t confuse cost and price. With EVs being the obviously superior technology, demand for EVs will remain high well after ICEV production ceases, this is why I think EVs and ICEVs will never reach price parity, ICEVs will die first.
不要混淆成本和價格。由于電動汽車明顯的優勢技術，在燃油車停產后，對電動車的需求仍將保持高位，這就是為什么我認為電動汽車和燃油車永遠不會達到相同價格水平，燃油車仍會先玩完兒。
Just curious, what year does your crystal ball say that the US will have 14M EV's a year to buy? I pick that number as it's about the number of new cars sold in the US last year. I think until we get 14M+ new EVs a year that ICE cars will still be sold and in significant numbers. So it can make a better guess, be sure to tell your crystal ball that only about 1M were sold last year and the major makers have said that they only plan to have 40-60% of their cars as EV by 2030. :)
I think your point about the 2 types not reaching price parity and why is interesting to consider. I don't have an opinion on if you're right or not, but it is an interesting question.
只是好奇，你的水晶球說美國將在哪一年購買 1400 萬輛電動汽車？我選擇這個數字是因為它與去年在美國銷售的新車數量有關。我認為，在我們每年獲得超過 1400 萬輛新電動汽車之前，燃油汽車仍將大量銷售。所以它可以做出更好的猜測，一定要告訴你的水晶球，去年只售出了大約 100 萬輛，而主要制造商已經表示他們只計劃到 2030 年將 40-60% 的汽車改為電動汽車。:)
我認為你關于兩種類型未達到價格平價的觀點以及為什么考慮這一點很有趣。我對你是否正確沒有意見，但這是一個有趣的問題。
The hold back right now to EVs is the production rate of building them. Orders are coming in far faster than auto companies can build them. Tesla just finish new factories in Texas and German which are now ramping up production.
目前阻礙電動汽車的是制造它們的生產率。訂單來得比汽車公司建造訂單的速度要快得多。特斯拉剛剛在德克薩斯州和德國完成了新工廠，這些工廠現在正在提高產量。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
I think soon fewer than 10 million new cars will be sold in the US each year. Our cultural relationship to cars is changing. Young people just don't prioritize them the way we did.
As for the major makers, they fail to see everything coming a decade away.
我認為很快美國每年將售出不到 1000 萬輛新車。我們與汽車的文化關系正在發生變化。年輕人只是不像我們那樣優先考慮它們。
至于主要制造商，他們看不到十年后的一切。
You could be right about younger people not caring about cars as much; but as kbm3 points out, if the younger generation is going to rely on Uber/Lyft/etc, then that going to take a lot of cars anyway, so the over total may not decrease that much. That being said, I'm not sure we'll know one way or the other for another 5=10 years.
So the burning question I have in regards to new car sales is: If there were no supply shortages at all (chips, batteries, anything for EV or gas), how many new car sales would there really be? I'm reasonably sure we can't answer that until the supply chain problems are gone and I'm also sure the answer will be interesting.
年輕人不太關心汽車，你可能是對的。但正如 kbm3 指出的那樣，如果年輕一代要依賴 Uber/Lyft/等，那么無論如何都會占用很多汽車，所以總體總量可能不會減少那么多。話雖如此，我不確定我們是否會在另外 5 = 10 年內以一種或另一種方式知道。
因此，關于新車銷售，我最迫切的問題是：如果根本沒有供應短缺（芯片、電池、電動汽車或汽油的任何東西），那么真的會增加多少新電動汽車的銷售？我有理由相信，在供應鏈問題消失之前，我們無法回答這個問題，而且我也相信答案會很有趣。
This is not a minor trend.The are lot more orders than can be filled quickly and it is increasing. This is growing every year.
這不是一個小趨勢。訂單數量遠遠超過可以快速完成的數量，而且還在增加。每年都在增長。
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
Well, I agree demand can drive price regardless of the costs, but more and more car makers are significantly increasing their production of EVs. Like battery price drops, it will be a few years before we'll see high EV production numbers for companies other than Tesla, but when we do, the supply will meet demand, and prices will tend to more closely align with costs, at about the same time battery prices will drop (and don't forget Tesla production will be way higher too). It is all pointing to the direction of EVs costing less that ICE cars.
It certainly doesn't look like it now, but think ahead a few years, taking into consideration all the changes that are occurring at a very fast rate.
好吧，我同意不管成本如何，需求都會推動價格，但越來越多的汽車制造商正在大幅增加電動汽車的產量。就像電池價格下降一樣，我們還需要幾年的時間才能看到特斯拉以外的公司提供更高產量的電動汽車，但當我們這樣做時，供應將滿足需求，價格將更接近于成本，約為同時電池價格會下降（別忘了特斯拉的產量也會更高）。這一切都指向電動汽車成本低于內燃機汽車的方向。
當然現在看起來不像，但考慮到所有正在以非?？斓乃俣劝l生的變化，請提前幾年思考。
Eventually EVs will be priced less. Once the market is saturated at the current price, somebody will realize they can make a healthy profit on even cheaper EVs (Because the cost is less), and they will ship a product to fulfill this market need.
最終，電動汽車的價格會更低。一旦市場以目前的價格飽和，有人會意識到他們可以在更便宜的電動汽車上獲得可觀的利潤（因為成本更低），他們將推出滿足這一市場需求的產品。
The question is whether ICEVs will survive long enough for that to happen. As the cost to manufacture drops, EVs become more profitable at the high prices. Why would manufacturers continue to make less profitable ICEVs?
問題是，燃油車是否能存活足夠長的時間來實現這一目標。隨著制造成本的下降，電動汽車在高價下變得更有利可圖。為什么制造商會繼續生產利潤較低的燃油車？
原創翻譯：龍騰網 http://www.mmg13444.com 轉載請注明出處
Earlier this year, Motorweek was showing the Lightning F-150, I was trying to explain EVs amid my Dad, Mom and brother all bitching about how the Democrats are forcing us to buy EVs. (Dad switched the channel to PBS for watch Motorweek)
I mentioned that the SR Lightning goes 230 miles on a charge, Dad goes "I can go further on a tank of gas".
It's going to be a whole lot more difficult to convert the US to EVs because conservatives see green energy as evil and a way to eliminate freedoms. Doesn't help that people like my parents watch Fox News about 8-10 hours a day.
今年早些時候，《汽車周刊》展示了福特的純電皮卡 F-150閃電，我試圖在我的爸爸、媽媽和兄弟中解釋電動汽車，他們都在抱怨民主黨如何強迫我們購買電動汽車。（我老爹把頻道從汽車周刊切換去看 PBS了 ）
我向他們提到“閃電”SR一次充電可以行駛 230 英里，我爹說“用一箱油我可以跑得更遠”。
將美國轉變為電動汽車將變得更加困難，因為保守派認為綠色能源是邪惡的，是破壞自由的一種方式。像我爹媽這種每天看 8 到 10 個小時的?？怂剐侣劦娜烁菬o濟于事。